Evaluating Forecasts of Incident Flu Hospitalizations Using Weighted Interval Scores

Last 2 Forecasts (EW53 - EW1)

Forecast Accuracy

Weekly Accuracy

Comparing Evaluation Metrics

Each point in the plots below represents a specific model. The red point is the ensemble.

Completeness of Submissions

Last 4 Forecasts (EW51 - EW1)

Models which qualified for the ensemble at all time horizons (1, 2, 3, and 4 weeks prior) for each of the last 4 observed weeks in at least 50 locations are included in the following analysis.

Forecast Accuracy

Weekly Accuracy

Comparing Evaluation Metrics

Each point in the plots below represents a specific model. The red point is the ensemble.

Completeness of Submissions

Last 8 Forecasts (EW47 - EW1)

Models which qualified for the ensemble at all time horizons (1, 2, 3, and 4 weeks prior) for each of the last 8 observed weeks in at least 50 locations are included in the following analysis.

Forecast Accuracy

## Warning in wilcox.test.default(values_x, values_y, paired = TRUE): cannot
## compute exact p-value with zeroes

Weekly Accuracy

Comparing Evaluation Metrics

Each point in the plots below represents a specific model. The red point is the ensemble.

Completeness of Submissions

Long-Term Performance

All Models

Season (EW47 - EW1)

Forecast Accuracy

Comparing Evaluation Metrics

Each point in the plots below represents a specific model. The red point is the ensemble.

Completeness of Submissions